War: A Breakdown in the Bargaining Model
This essay examines the onset of the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian war through the lens of a commitment problem from the bargaining model of war, arguing that the conflict stems from a fundamental breakdown in bargaining over Ukraine's future. It analyzes Russia's decision to invade as a strategic miscalculation and argues that the war's outcome hinges on a shifting balance of power and a new framework for state-to-state relations in the post-Soviet era.
Russia’s Shifting Power Structures
This essay traces the evolution of power networks in post-Soviet Russia, from the criminal underworld of the 1990s to the consolidation of elite influence under Putin. It argues that the figures who emerged after 1991 no longer fit the traditional definition of oligarchs as their power is now contingent on Kremlin approval rather than independent political standing.
Stalin’s Economic Legacy: Growth and Decay
Beyond Signaling: Reforming U.S. Sanctions Strategy
This essay explores the successes and failures of Stalin's Five-Year Plans, arguing that his economic policies achieved remarkable short-term industrial growth — and potentially durable long-term results, had WW2 not intervened. Despite their human cost, the Plans laid the groundwork for a formidable industrial base that proved essential to the Soviet war effort.
With over 28,000 designations, the current sanctions regime has failed to alter the Kremlin's political calculus or meaningfully degrade its war effort. This memo analyzes how Russia has leveraged its status as a commodity superpower to sustain trade with China, India, and Turkiye, and offers recommendations for shifting toward supply chain targeting as a more effective instrument of pressure.